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AGNC Investment’s first-quarter 2025 results reflected an improvement in average asset yield on its portfolio, while its net book value per common share was down from the prior-year quarter.
The company’s earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in one of the trailing four quarters, missed twice and matched once, with an average negative surprise of 3.27%.
Earnings Surprise History
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Let us check out how AGNC is expected to fare in terms of revenues and earnings this time around.
In the past seven days, the consensus estimate for earnings has been unchanged at 42 cents. This suggests a 20.8% decline from the prior-year quarter.
Estimate Revision Trend
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $254.2 million, whereas AGNC Investment reported negative revenues of $3 million in the year-ago quarter.
Trends Leading to AGNC’s Q2 Performance
Despite interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2024, mortgage rates did not come down meaningfully. In the second quarter, mortgage rates fluctuated, but they remained in the mid-to-upper 6% range. As such, refinancing activities and origination volumes witnessed decent growth.
Amid this, a large part of AGNC Investment’s mortgage-backed securities (MBS) holdings is anticipated to have witnessed higher levels of constant prepayment rates.
This is expected to have positively impacted AGNC’s net premium amortization in the second quarter, in turn, supporting growth in interest income and average asset yield. The Zacks Consensus for interest income is pegged at $884.1 million, suggesting a rise of 4.5% from the year-ago reported figure.
The primary-secondary spread has averaged 1.06% in the second quarter of 2025, below the first quarter’s average of 1.12%. Due to increased volatility in the market, the primary-secondary spread may be slightly skewed. As such, AGNC’s gain on sale margins in the second quarter of 2025 are likely to have been relatively steady.
With primary-secondary spreads relatively stable and increased mortgage rate volatility, AGNC is likely to have seen a decline in its book value per share in the quarter to be reported.
What Our Model Unveils for AGNC Investment
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for AGNC this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
AGNC Investment outperformed the industry in the second quarter of 2025. Its peers, Annaly Capital Management (NLY - Free Report) and Arbor Realty Trust (ABR - Free Report) , underperformed in the same time frame.
Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Annaly Capital Management is scheduled to announce quarterly numbers on July 23, while Arbor Realty Trust is expected to come out with its performance details on August 1. Stay up-to-date with all quarterly releases: See Zacks Earnings Calendar.
Let us look at the value AGNC offers investors at present.
Currently, the AGNC stock is trading at 1.08X forward 12 months price/tangible book TTM (P/TB TTM), above the industry’s P/TB TTM multiple of 0.98X. The company’s valuation looks somewhat expensive compared with the industry average.
Price-to-Tangible Book TTM
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Annaly Capital Management and Arbor Realty Trust are trading at forward P/TB TTM multiples of 0.99X and 0.95X, respectively.
How to Play AGNC Investment’s Stock Now?
AGNC is well-positioned to benefit as it adheres to an active portfolio-management policy, which includes re-evaluation and adjustment of its portfolio and hedges amid a varying interest rate and mortgage market environment. The company focuses on leveraged investments in Agency residential MBS. That includes residential mortgage pass-through securities and collateralized mortgage obligations. The GSE guarantee for the principal and interest payments makes Agency MBS a safer investment choice.
With expected interest rate cuts in 2025, AGNC's net interest spread and book value are expected to get a boost. This will provide the company’s stock a much-needed boost.
AGNC Investment rewards its shareholders handsomely. AGNC’s current dividend yield is 15.47%. This is impressive compared with the industry’s average of 11.8% and attracts investors as it represents a steady income stream.
However, volatility in the mortgage market, unfavorable changes in the form of the yield curve and a deterioration of the generic financial conditions are likely to affect AGNC's performance in the future. The company also has a track of lowering dividends during stressful times.
Investors should remain watchful of these factors, as they can affect the performance of AGNC Investment. Hence, prospective investors should analyze the company’s upcoming earnings release and market volatility closely before making an investment decision. Its premium valuation also warrants caution.
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AGNC Investment to Report Q2 Earnings: Buy Now or Wait for Results?
Key Takeaways
AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC - Free Report) is slated to report second-quarter 2025 earnings on July 21, after market close.
AGNC Investment’s first-quarter 2025 results reflected an improvement in average asset yield on its portfolio, while its net book value per common share was down from the prior-year quarter.
The company’s earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in one of the trailing four quarters, missed twice and matched once, with an average negative surprise of 3.27%.
Earnings Surprise History
Let us check out how AGNC is expected to fare in terms of revenues and earnings this time around.
In the past seven days, the consensus estimate for earnings has been unchanged at 42 cents. This suggests a 20.8% decline from the prior-year quarter.
Estimate Revision Trend
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $254.2 million, whereas AGNC Investment reported negative revenues of $3 million in the year-ago quarter.
Trends Leading to AGNC’s Q2 Performance
Despite interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2024, mortgage rates did not come down meaningfully. In the second quarter, mortgage rates fluctuated, but they remained in the mid-to-upper 6% range. As such, refinancing activities and origination volumes witnessed decent growth.
Amid this, a large part of AGNC Investment’s mortgage-backed securities (MBS) holdings is anticipated to have witnessed higher levels of constant prepayment rates.
This is expected to have positively impacted AGNC’s net premium amortization in the second quarter, in turn, supporting growth in interest income and average asset yield. The Zacks Consensus for interest income is pegged at $884.1 million, suggesting a rise of 4.5% from the year-ago reported figure.
The primary-secondary spread has averaged 1.06% in the second quarter of 2025, below the first quarter’s average of 1.12%. Due to increased volatility in the market, the primary-secondary spread may be slightly skewed. As such, AGNC’s gain on sale margins in the second quarter of 2025 are likely to have been relatively steady.
With primary-secondary spreads relatively stable and increased mortgage rate volatility, AGNC is likely to have seen a decline in its book value per share in the quarter to be reported.
What Our Model Unveils for AGNC Investment
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for AGNC this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
AGNC Investment has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
AGNC’s Price Performance & Valuation
AGNC Investment outperformed the industry in the second quarter of 2025. Its peers, Annaly Capital Management (NLY - Free Report) and Arbor Realty Trust (ABR - Free Report) , underperformed in the same time frame.
Price Performance
Annaly Capital Management is scheduled to announce quarterly numbers on July 23, while Arbor Realty Trust is expected to come out with its performance details on August 1. Stay up-to-date with all quarterly releases: See Zacks Earnings Calendar.
Let us look at the value AGNC offers investors at present.
Currently, the AGNC stock is trading at 1.08X forward 12 months price/tangible book TTM (P/TB TTM), above the industry’s P/TB TTM multiple of 0.98X. The company’s valuation looks somewhat expensive compared with the industry average.
Price-to-Tangible Book TTM
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Annaly Capital Management and Arbor Realty Trust are trading at forward P/TB TTM multiples of 0.99X and 0.95X, respectively.
How to Play AGNC Investment’s Stock Now?
AGNC is well-positioned to benefit as it adheres to an active portfolio-management policy, which includes re-evaluation and adjustment of its portfolio and hedges amid a varying interest rate and mortgage market environment. The company focuses on leveraged investments in Agency residential MBS. That includes residential mortgage pass-through securities and collateralized mortgage obligations. The GSE guarantee for the principal and interest payments makes Agency MBS a safer investment choice.
With expected interest rate cuts in 2025, AGNC's net interest spread and book value are expected to get a boost. This will provide the company’s stock a much-needed boost.
AGNC Investment rewards its shareholders handsomely. AGNC’s current dividend yield is 15.47%. This is impressive compared with the industry’s average of 11.8% and attracts investors as it represents a steady income stream.
However, volatility in the mortgage market, unfavorable changes in the form of the yield curve and a deterioration of the generic financial conditions are likely to affect AGNC's performance in the future. The company also has a track of lowering dividends during stressful times.
Investors should remain watchful of these factors, as they can affect the performance of AGNC Investment. Hence, prospective investors should analyze the company’s upcoming earnings release and market volatility closely before making an investment decision. Its premium valuation also warrants caution.